李文毅, 朱晶颖, 张熙, 庞振昱, 周伟杰. 无锡市大气PM2.5对儿童内科门诊量影响的时间序列分析[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2017, 34(3): 230-234. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2017.16340
引用本文: 李文毅, 朱晶颖, 张熙, 庞振昱, 周伟杰. 无锡市大气PM2.5对儿童内科门诊量影响的时间序列分析[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2017, 34(3): 230-234. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2017.16340
LI Wen-yi, ZHU Jing-ying, ZHANG Xi, PANG Zhen-yu, ZHOU Wei-jie. Time-series analysis on effects of ambient PM2.5 on pediatric internal medicine outpatient visits in Wuxi[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2017, 34(3): 230-234. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2017.16340
Citation: LI Wen-yi, ZHU Jing-ying, ZHANG Xi, PANG Zhen-yu, ZHOU Wei-jie. Time-series analysis on effects of ambient PM2.5 on pediatric internal medicine outpatient visits in Wuxi[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2017, 34(3): 230-234. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2017.16340

无锡市大气PM2.5对儿童内科门诊量影响的时间序列分析

Time-series analysis on effects of ambient PM2.5 on pediatric internal medicine outpatient visits in Wuxi

  • 摘要: 目的 了解无锡市大气污染基本特征,重点探讨大气主要污染物PM2.5对儿童内科门诊量的影响。

    方法 收集2014-2015年无锡市逐日气象资料、大气污染物资料以及儿童专科医院内科门诊量数据。采用基于Poisson分布的广义相加模型(GAM),控制长期趋势及气象条件等混杂因素,分析PM2.5浓度和儿童内科门诊量的关系及滞后效应。

    结果 2014-2015年无锡市PM2.5日平均质量浓度(后称“浓度”)年均值为61.4 μg/m3;Spearman等级相关分析表明,儿童内科日门诊量与二氧化硫、二氧化氮、一氧化碳、PM10和PM2.5等污染物浓度呈正相关(P < 0.01)。时间序列分析结果提示,PM2.5对儿童内科门诊量的影响存在滞后及累积效应,超额危险度(ER)估计值在单日滞后第4天及累积滞后第10天,达到观察期内较高值,PM2.5浓度每升高10μg/m3,儿童内科门诊量分别增加0.47%(95%可信区间:0.35%~0.59%)和1.45%(95%可信区间:1.15%~1.75%)。

    结论 无锡市大气主要污染物PM2.5浓度升高可导致儿童内科门诊量增加,应采取措施保护易感人群。

     

    Abstract: Objective To describe the basic characteristics of ambient air pollution and to quantify the effects of PM2.5 concentration on pediatric internal medicine outpatient visits in Wuxi.

    Methods From 2014 to 2015, daily meteorological variables, air pollution data, and outpatient visits to internal medicine in a children's hospital were collected. Generalized additive model (GAM) based on Poisson distribution was used, with adjusting longterm trend and meteorological variables, to evaluate the association between daily pediatric internal medicine outpatient visits and PM2.5 concentrations as well as related lag patterns.

    Results The annual mean level of PM2.5 from 2014 to 2015 in Wuxi was 61.4 μg/m3. The daily count of pediatric internal medicine outpatient visits was positively associated with sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), PM10, and PM2.5 concentrations (P < 0.01) according to the Spearman rank correlation analysis. A 10-μg/m3 increment in PM2.5 was associated with a 0.47%95% confidence interval (CI):0.35%-0.59% increment in pediatric internal medicine outpatient visits on the 4th lag day (lag 4) and a 1.45% (95%CI:1.15%-1.75%) increment on 0-to 10-day cumulative lag.

    Conclusion Higher PM2.5 concentrations correspond to elevated pediatric internal medicine outpatient visits in Wuxi. The results urge related agencies to adopt corresponding measures to protect susceptible groups.

     

/

返回文章
返回