于永, 李洁, 周连, 陈晓东. 南京市2010-2013年手足口病发病人数与气象因素的关联[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2015, 32(12): 1132-1135. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2015.15382
引用本文: 于永, 李洁, 周连, 陈晓东. 南京市2010-2013年手足口病发病人数与气象因素的关联[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2015, 32(12): 1132-1135. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2015.15382
YU Yong , LI Jie , ZHOU Lian , CHEN Xiao-dong . Association of Meteorological Factors with Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Nanjing City from 2010 to 2013[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2015, 32(12): 1132-1135. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2015.15382
Citation: YU Yong , LI Jie , ZHOU Lian , CHEN Xiao-dong . Association of Meteorological Factors with Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Nanjing City from 2010 to 2013[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2015, 32(12): 1132-1135. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2015.15382

南京市2010-2013年手足口病发病人数与气象因素的关联

Association of Meteorological Factors with Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Nanjing City from 2010 to 2013

  • 摘要: 目的 采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)探讨手足口病发病与气象因素的关系,为手足口病的防控提供依据。

    方法 2010-2013 年南京市每日手足口病病例发病的基本信息及气象数据分别来自中国疾病预防控制信息系统及该市的气象部门,应用R2.12.0 软件DLNM软件包分析手足口病发病人数与气象因素的关系。

    结果 共收集该市手足口病62 266 例,夏秋季为发病高峰;在无滞后的情况下,日平均气温达31℃时手足口病风险最高(RR=1.08,95%CI:1.02~1.14),18℃时发病风险最低(RR=0.96,95%CI:0.93~0.99)。气压越小效应越大,气压为991 hpa 时,在滞后第5 天效应最大(RR=1.14,95%CI:1.05~1.25);当气压为1 037 hpa 时,在滞后第12 天效应最小(RR=0.66,95%CI:0.52~0.85)。

    结论 较高气温对手足口病的发病具有急性效应,而低温的影响具有滞后作用;气压与手足口病的发病呈负相关,且具有滞后作用。

     

    Abstract: Objective To examine the relationship between hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and meteorological factors by distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), and to provide evidence for the prevention and control of HFMD.

    Methods The general daily information of HFMD cases and meteorological variables in Nanjing from 2010 to 2013 were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and local meteorological department. The relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD were analyzed using the DLNM package within R2.12.0 software.

    Results A total of 62 266 HFMD cases were reported. Summer and autumn were the peak seasons for incidence. With the assumption of lag 0 d, the estimated risk reached its maximum at an average temperature of 31℃ (RR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14) and minimum at an average temperature of 18℃ (RR=0.96; 95% CI: 0.93-0.99). Smaller air pressure was associated with greater risk of HFMD. At air pressure of 991 hpa and with lag 5 d the maximum effect was reported (RR=1.14; 95% CI: 1.05-1.25); at air pressure of 1 037 hpa and with lag 12 d the minimum effect was reported (RR=0.66; 95% CI: 0.52-0.85).

    Conclusion Higher temperature may have acute effects on HFMD incidence, while lower temperature may have lag effects. Air pressure is negatively correlated with the incidence of HFMD and may have lag effects.

     

/

返回文章
返回