奉琪, 苏莎, 张劲夫, 朱彩明. 长沙市城区大气PM2.5浓度与居民每日死亡关系研究[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2018, 35(2): 131-136. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.17371
引用本文: 奉琪, 苏莎, 张劲夫, 朱彩明. 长沙市城区大气PM2.5浓度与居民每日死亡关系研究[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2018, 35(2): 131-136. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.17371
FENG Qi, SU Sha, ZHANG Jin-fu, ZHU Cai-ming. Association between PM2.5 concentration and daily resident mortality in urban area of Changsha[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2018, 35(2): 131-136. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.17371
Citation: FENG Qi, SU Sha, ZHANG Jin-fu, ZHU Cai-ming. Association between PM2.5 concentration and daily resident mortality in urban area of Changsha[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2018, 35(2): 131-136. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.17371

长沙市城区大气PM2.5浓度与居民每日死亡关系研究

Association between PM2.5 concentration and daily resident mortality in urban area of Changsha

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨长沙市城区大气污染物PM2.5暴露对居民每日死亡风险的影响。

    方法 收集2014年1月1日至2016年12月31日期间长沙市城区每日温度、相对湿度等气象数据,PM2.5、PM10、NO2、SO2、CO等大气污染物数据和居民每日死亡数据。采用分布滞后非线性模型,控制时间长期趋势、气象因素、星期几及节假日效应等混杂因素,分析PM2.5单独暴露及其与PM10、NO2、SO2、CO等联合暴露当日至滞后14 d时居民每日总死亡、心血管疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡的风险。

    结果 长沙市城区PM2.5年均质量浓度(以下简称"浓度")为63μg/m3。单污染物模型显示,PM2.5质量浓度上升10μg/m3时,致居民每日总死亡(lag10)和每日心血管疾病死亡(lag1)的风险(RR及其95%CI)分别为1.051 8(1.006 5~1.099 4)和1.086 1(1.005 6~1.173 0),对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响无统计学意义。双污染物模型分析显示,分别引入NO2、SO2后,PM2.5致居民每日总死亡的风险增加(RR=1.084 3,95%CI:1.027 8~1.143 9;RR=1.067 9,95%CI:1.015 5~1.123 0),致每日心血管疾病死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡的风险降低;引入CO后,PM2.5致居民每日总死亡、每日心血管疾病死亡的风险增加,致每日呼吸系统疾病死亡的风险降低。

    结论 长沙市城区PM2.5浓度升高可导致居民总死亡的风险增加。

     

    Abstract: Objective To evaluate the effect of PM2.5 exposure on daily resident mortality risk in the urban area of Changsha.

    Methods Daily meteorological data (temperature and relative humidity), air pollutant data (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and CO), and daily resident mortality data in urban area of Changsha were collect from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016. Distributed lag non-linear model was used to evaluate the association between PM2.5 exposure and co-exposure with PM10, NO2, SO2, and CO and daily all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease mortality, and respiratory disease mortality from current day of exposure to lag 14 days, with adjustment for confounding factors such as long-term trend, meteorological factors, day of the week, and holiday effect.

    Results The annual mean concentration of PM2.5 in urban area of Changsha was 63 μg/m3. In the single-pollutant models, an increase of 10μg/m3 in PM2.5 was associated with increased risks (RR, 95% CI) of daily all-cause mortality (lag10) (1.0518, 1.0065-1.0994) and daily cardiovascular disease mortality (lag1) (1.086 1, 1.005 6-1.173 0), but no significant result was found on daily respiratory disease mortality. In the two-pollutant models, after adjusted for NO2 and SO2, the relative risks (RR, 95% CI) of daily all-cause mortality were 1.084 3 (1.027 8-1.143 9) and 1.067 9 (1.015 5-1.123 0), respectively, while the relative risks of daily cardiovascular disease mortality and daily respiratory disease mortality were decreased. After adjusted for CO, the relative risks of daily all-cause mortality and daily cardiovascular disease mortality were increased, while the relative risk of respiratory disease mortality was decreased.

    Conclusion Increasing PM2.5 concentrations may be associated with a higher risk of daily all-cause resident mortality in Changsha urban area.

     

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