不同温度指标与宁夏5市居民非意外死亡的关系
Relationships of different temperature indices with non-accidental mortality of residents in fve cities of Ningxia
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摘要:
目的 探讨不同温度指标与宁夏5市居民非意外死亡的关系。
方法 收集2010年1月1日-2015年12月31日宁夏5市的居民死亡监测数据及气象监测数据，采用广义线性模型结合分布滞后非线性模型，评估不同温度指标与非意外死亡的关系。
结果 宁夏各地区日平均气温的中位数为9.1~12.6℃。相对于日间温差，各地区日内温差的中位数更大，无论是高温天气（当天气温高于最小死亡温度）还是低温天气（当天气温低于最小死亡温度），中卫市的日内温差最大（高温天气：13.8℃；低温天气：13.5℃）。宁夏各地区日平均气温与非意外死亡之间呈现"V "或" J"型关系，极端低温（日平均气温的第1百分位数）增加银川市（RR：1.69；95%CI：1.31~2.19）、石嘴山市（RR：2.03；95%CI：1.04~3.93）及固原市（RR：2.16；95%CI：1.53~3.04）居民非意外死亡的风险。极端高温（日平均气温的第99百分位数）增加吴忠市（RR：2.49；95%CI，1.20~5.14）居民非意外死亡的风险。高温天气时，日内温差增加可增加银川市居民的死亡风险（RR：1.06；95%CI：1.01~1.11）。日间温差的变化对宁夏地区居民非意外死亡的影响无统计学意义。
结论 相较于日内温差及日间温差，日平均气温过高或过低对宁夏地区居民非意外死亡风险的影响更大。
Abstract:Objective To evaluate the relationships of different temperature indices with non-accidental mortality of residents in five cities of Ningxia.
Methods Daily mortality and meteorological data in five cities of Ningxia were collected from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2015. A generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the relationships of different temperature indices with non-accidental mortality.
Results The median of daily temperature in selected five cities of Ningxia ranged from 9.1 to 12.6℃. The median of intraday temperature change was higher than interday temperature change in all the five cities. Whether in hot days (when the average temperature was higher than that of minimum mortality temperature) or cold days (when the average temperature was lower than minimum mortality temperature), Zhongwei City showed the largest intraday temperature change (hot days, 13.8℃; cold days, 13.5℃). There was a V-shaped or J-shaped relationship between daily average temperature and non-accidental mortality in selected cities of Ningxia. Extreme cold (P1 of temperature) was associated with increased risks of non-accidental mortality in Yinchuan City, Shizuishan City, and Guyuan City, with RR (95% CI) of 1.69(1.31-2.19), 2.03(1.04-3.93), and 2.16(1.53-3.04), respectively. While extreme heat (P99 of temperature) was associated with increased risks of non-accidental mortality in Wuzhong City, with RR (95% CI) of 2.49 (1.20-5.14). Elevated intraday temperature change on hot days increased the non-accidental mortality in Yinchuan City (RR:1.06; 95% CI:1.01-1.11). No effect of the variation of interday temperature change on non-accidental mortality was found.
Conclusion Compared with intraday temperature change and interday temperature change, extreme daily average temperatures are associated with increased non-accidental mortality of residents in Ningxia.
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