上海市浦东新区PM2.5对小学生因病缺课影响的时间序列研究
Effects of PM2.5 on elementary school students' sickness absenteeism in Pudong New Area, Shanghai: A time-series analysis
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摘要:
目的 探讨上海市浦东新区PM2.5污染对小学生因呼吸系统症状和疾病缺课的影响。
方法 收集上海市浦东新区2015年9月1日-2017年6月30日小学生每日因呼吸系统症状和疾病缺课资料、同期大气污染和气象资料，利用基于广义相加模型的时间序列分析，同时控制时间趋势、星期几效应和气象因素的影响，定量评价PM2.5污染对小学生因呼吸系统症状和疾病缺课的影响。
结果 当日PM2.5浓度每增加10 μg/m3，小学生因呼吸系统症状和疾病缺课的相对危险度（RR）为1.021（95%CI：1.009~1.033），一、二年级小学生的RR分别为1.024（95%CI：1.009~1.039）和1.026（95%CI：1.011~1.041）；当日和滞后1日对三、四年级小学生都有影响（P < 0.05），PM2.5当日RR分别为1.018（95%CI：1.003~1.032）和1.021（95%CI：1.006~1.035），对五年级小学生效应无统计学意义（P > 0.05）。PM2.5当日浓度和2、3日滑动平均浓度对小学生因呼吸系统症状和疾病缺课均存在影响（P < 0.01），男生和女生的RR分别为1.021（95%CI：1.008~1.033）和1.022（95%CI：1.009~1.034）。
结论 浦东新区PM2.5污染可使小学生因呼吸系统症状和疾病缺课增加。
Abstract:Objective To estimate the health effects of PM2.5 pollution on elementary school students' absenteeism caused by respiratory symptoms and diseases in Pudong New Area, Shanghai.
Methods Data of absenteeism caused by respiratory symptoms and diseases, air pollutants, and meteorological factors from September 1, 2015 to June 30, 2016 in Pudong New Area of Shanghai were collected. Generalized additive model was used to quantitatively estimate the effects of PM2.5 pollution on students' absenteeism caused by respiratory symptoms and diseases, after controlling time trends, day-of-the-week effect, and meteorological factors.
Results The relative risk (RR) of elementary school students' absenteeism caused by respiratory symptoms and diseases was 1.021 (95%CI:1.009-1.033) for a 10μg/m3 increase of PM2.5, and the RRs of absenteeism for the 1st and 2nd grade students were 1.024 (95%CI:1.009-1.039) and 1.026 (95%CI:1.011-1.041), respectively. PM2.5 concentrations of current dayRRs (95%CIs) were 1.018 (1.003-1.032) and 1.021 (1.006-1.035), respectively and previous one day both had effects on the 3rd and 4th grade students (P < 0.05), but not on the 5th grade students (P > 0.05). The current-day PM2.5 concentrations and 2-day and 3-day moving averages of PM2.5 concentrations had effects on both male and female elementary school students (P < 0.01), and the RRs (95%CIs) of the current-day PM2.5 were 1.021 (1.008-1.033) and 1.022 (1.009-1.034) respectively.
Conclusion PM2.5 pollution could enhance elementary school students' absenteeism caused by respiratory symptoms and diseases.
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