刘乐, 韦慧燕, 王兵亚, 何燕. 郑州市大气PM2.5与居民循环系统疾病死亡的相关性[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2021, 38(7): 740-746. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2021.20436
引用本文: 刘乐, 韦慧燕, 王兵亚, 何燕. 郑州市大气PM2.5与居民循环系统疾病死亡的相关性[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2021, 38(7): 740-746. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2021.20436
LIU Le, WEI Huiyan, WANG Bingya, HE Yan. Correlations between atmospheric PM2.5 and residents' circulatory disease deaths in Zhengzhou[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2021, 38(7): 740-746. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2021.20436
Citation: LIU Le, WEI Huiyan, WANG Bingya, HE Yan. Correlations between atmospheric PM2.5 and residents' circulatory disease deaths in Zhengzhou[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2021, 38(7): 740-746. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2021.20436

郑州市大气PM2.5与居民循环系统疾病死亡的相关性

Correlations between atmospheric PM2.5 and residents' circulatory disease deaths in Zhengzhou

  • 摘要: 背景

    大气污染物PM2.5暴露与循环系统疾病死亡人数存在密切关联,但不同城市之间PM2.5对循环系统疾病死亡人次的影响存在差异。

    目的

    重点探讨郑州市大气PM2.5浓度与居民循环系统疾病日均死亡人数的相关性。

    方法

    收集2019年郑州市大气污染物、气象资料以及居民循环系统疾病死亡数据。采用Spearman相关分析三者之间的相关性。采用基于Poisson分布的广义线性模型,控制长期趋势、星期几效应和气象等影响因素后,研究郑州市大气PM2.5浓度与循环系统疾病日均死亡人数的关系及滞后效应,同时对年龄和季节进行分层分析。

    结果

    2019年郑州市居民因循环系统疾病死亡共19 429人,日均死亡(55.32±13.35)人。郑州市2019年PM2.5年均浓度为(65.81±41.10)μg·m-3。Spearman相关分析表明,循环系统疾病日均死亡人数与PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、CO和气压均呈正相关,与O3-8h、日均温度和相对湿度呈负相关(P < 0.05)。单污染物模型中,PM2.5与循环系统疾病总人群、 < 65岁和≥ 65岁人群死亡的关联分别在lag2、1ag4和lag3时最高,PM2.5每升高10 μg·m-3,其风险分别增加0.472%(95% CI:0.098%~0.847%)、0.700%(95% CI:0.059%~1.345%)、0.516%(95% CI:0.097%~0.937%),PM2.5浓度与循环系统疾病人群死亡的暴露-反应关系曲线均呈近似线性的缓慢上升状态。在供热期和非供热期,PM2.5浓度每升高10 μg·m-3,对总人群循环系统疾病日死亡风险分别增加0.665%(95% CI:0.084%~1.249%)和1.919%(95% CI:0.355%~3.506%)(P < 0.05);在非供热期,PM2.5浓度每升高10 μg·m-3,≥ 65岁人群循环系统疾病每日死亡风险增加2.734%(95% CI:0.975%~4.524%)(P < 0.05)。双污染物模型中,在供热期,纳入SO2时,PM2.5浓度升高对总人群和≥ 65岁人群循环系统疾病每日死亡风险的影响具有统计学意义(P < 0.05);纳入O3-8h时,对总人群的影响仍然具有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。在非供热期,分别纳入SO2、CO、PM10、NO2和O3-8h后,PM2.5浓度升高对总人群和≥ 65岁人群循环系统疾病每日死亡风险的影响仍然具有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。

    结论

    郑州市大气污染物PM2.5浓度的升高与居民循环系统疾病死亡风险升高存在正相关联,尤其需要关注老年人群。

     

    Abstract: Background

    Exposure to air pollutant PM2.5 is closely related to the number of deaths from circulatory diseases, but the impact varies among cities.

    Objective

    This study focuses on the correlation between PM2.5 concentration and average daily deaths from circulatory diseases of residents in Zhengzhou.

    Methods

    Data of air pollutants, meteorological variables, and death of Zhengzhou residents in 2019 were collected. Spearman correlation analysis was used to understand the correlations among the variables. Poisson generalized linear model was employed, after controlling covariates such as long-term trend, day-of-the-week effect, and meteorological factors, to evaluate the daily circulatory disease deaths associated with atmospheric PM2.5concentrations and the lag effect. Age- and season-stratified analyses were also conducted.

    Results

    A total of 19 429 people died of circulatory diseases in Zhengzhou in 2019, with an average of 55.32±13.35 people every day. The average annual concentration of PM2.5 in Zhengzhou was (65.81±41.10) μg·m-3 in 2019. The Spearman correlation analysis results showed that the average daily death number of circulatory diseases was positively correlated with PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, and air pressure, and negatively correlated with O3-8h, average daily temperature, and relative humidity (P < 0.05). In the single-pollutant model, the correlations between PM2.5 concentration and deaths from circulatory diseases in total, < 65 years old, and ≥ 65 years old populations were strongest at lag2, lag4, and lag3, and for every 10μg·m-3 increase in the concentration of PM2.5, the risk of daily mortality increased by 0.472% (95% CI: 0.098%-0.847%), 0.700% (95% CI: 0.059%-1.345%), and 0.516% (95% CI: 0.097%-0.937%), respectively. The curve of the exposureresponse relationship between PM2.5 concentration and circulatory disease deaths showed an approximate linear rise. In both heating and non-heating periods, every 10 μg·m-3 increase in PM2.5 concentration was associated with an increase in daily mortality risk of circulatory system diseases in the total population by 0.665% (95% CI: 0.084%-1.249%) and 1.919% (95% CI: 0.355%-3.506%) respectively (P < 0.05); in the non-heating period, every 10 μg·m-3 increase in PM2.5 concentration was associated with an increase in daily mortality risk of circulatory diseases in the residents ≥ 65 years by 2.734% (95% CI: 0.975%-4.524%) (P < 0.05). In the double-pollutant model, in the heating period, when SO2 was included, the risk of daily death from circulatory diseases associated with an increase in PM2.5 concentration was significant in the total population and the people ≥ 65 years (P < 0.05); when O3-8h was included, the risk was still significant in the total population (P < 0.05). In the non-heating period, when SO2, CO, PM10, NO2, and O3-8h were included respectively, the effect of PM2.5 concentration increase on the daily mortality risk of circulatory diseases was still significant in the total population and the people ≥ 65 years (P < 0.05).

    Conclusion

    The increase of PM2.5 concentration is positively correlated with the increase of the risk of death from circulatory diseases among residents in Zhengzhou; the elderly deserve special attention.

     

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