Prediction of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases in China based on grey model

Background Occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases are increasing in China in recent years, and will seriously harm the health of workers.

Objective The study aims to understand and predict the incidence of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases in China.

Methods We collected relevant statistics of reported occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases from 2011 to 2018 from official bulletins on prevention and treatment of occupational diseases and development of health care undertakings published on websites of relevant national health departments. The epidemiological data were used to establish and test a grey model and to validate model predictive effect by applying the model to predict the incidence of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases in 2019-2020.

Results The cases of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases from 2011 to 2018 were 532, 639, 716, 880, 1 097, 1 276, 1 608, and 1 528, respectively. The grey model for national occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases was \hatx^(1)(k+1)=4 123.87e^0.15k-3 591.87, mean-squared error ratio (c)=0.226, micro error probability (p)=1.00, and average relative error was 6.30%. The predicted cases of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases from 2019 to 2020 were 1954 and 2277, respectively.

Conclusion The GM (1, 1) grey model can well fit and predict the incidence of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases in China, and it is applicable.