2018—2023年呼和浩特市近地臭氧暴露对居民死亡影响的时间序列分析

Time-series analysis of impact of ground-level ozone exposure on resident mortality in Hohhot City from 2018 to 2023

  • 摘要:
    背景 臭氧(O3)暴露与人群死亡风险增加密切相关,但其关联存在区域异质性,我国北方及中西部研究匮乏。呼和浩特作为北方西部典型城市,O3浓度呈明显上升趋势(2020年较2016年增加了17.9 μg·m−3),针对该地区的研究可填补区域空白。
    目的 探讨2018—2023年呼和浩特市大气中近地O3暴露对居民死亡的健康效应。
    方法 收集2018—2023年呼和浩特市空气环境质量、气象和死因监测数据。采用基于Quasi-Poisson广义相加模型(GAM)的时间序列,同时控制气象因素、星期几和节假日效应,评估O3对居民非意外总死亡、循环系统疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响。
    结果 2018—2023年呼和浩特市非意外总死亡、循环系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡人数分别为89721例、47394例和11378例,O3日最大8 h平均浓度(O3-8 h)为90.00 μg·m−3,按照GB 3095—2012《环境空气质量标准》一级标准限值(100 μg·m−3)年均超标天数为144 d。单日滞后效应:O3在当日(lag0)对非意外总死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的健康效应最强,效应值分别为0.78%(95%CI:0.33%~1.24%)和1.10%(95%CI:0.50%~1.71%);在滞后第2日(lag2)对呼吸系统疾病死亡的健康效应最强,效应值为1.61%(95%CI:0.61%~2.62%)。不同亚组分析结果显示,大气O3-8 h浓度每升高10 μg·m−3,非意外总死亡的女性亚组人群风险增加0.70%(95%CI:0.01%~1.41%);循环系统疾病死亡的男性和≥65岁亚组人群,风险分别增加0.73%(95%CI:0.01%~1.47%)和0.76%(95%CI:0.13%~1.39%);暖季对非意外总死亡、循环系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡的风险均有统计学意义,分别增加1.07%(95%CI:0.54%~1.60%)、1.31%(95%CI:0.59%~2.04%)和2.27%(95%CI:1.07%~3.49%)。双污染模型分析大气O3在纳入其他污染物二氧化硫(SO2)、二氧化氮(NO2)、一氧化碳(CO)、可吸入颗粒物(PM10)、细颗粒物(PM2.5)时,其效应估计值(超额危险度)变化不明显,结果仍有统计学意义(P<0.05),该模型稳健。
    结论 呼和浩特市近地O3暴露会增加非意外总死亡、循环系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡风险,且暖季危害效应更显著,女性和老年人可能属于敏感人群。因此,相关部门需高度关注O3暴露对公众特别是易感群体健康的潜在风险,推进并落实具有针对性的防控策略。

     

    Abstract:
    Background Exposure to ozone (O3) is closely associated with an increased risk of mortality in the population, but this association exhibits regional heterogeneity, and relevant research in northern and central-western China is limited. Hohhot, as a typical city in the northern and western region, has seen a significant upward trend in O3 concentrations (an increase of 17.9 μg·m−3 in 2020 compared to 2016). Studies targeting this region can fill the regional research gap.
    Objective To evaluate the health effects of ground-level O3 exposure on resident mortality in Hohhot from 2018 to 2023.
    Methods Air quality, meteorological, and mortality data in Hohhot from 2018 to 2023 were collected. A time-series analysis based on Quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) was employed, controlling for meteorological factors, day-of-week effects, and holiday effects, to assess the impact of O3 on non-accidental mortality, mortality from circulatory system diseases (CSD), and mortality from respiratory system diseases (RSD).
    Results From 2018 to 2023, the non-accidental, CSD, and RSD mortalities in Hohhot amounted to 89721, 47394, and 11378 cases, respectively. The daily maximum 8-hour average O3 concentration (O3-8 h) was 90.00 μg·m−3. According to the Class I limit (100 μg·m−3) of GB 3095—2012 Ambient Air Quality Standard, the annual average number of days exceeding the standard was 144 d. For single-day lag effects, O3 had the strongest health impact on non-accidental mortality and CSD mortality on the current day (lag0), with effect sizes of 0.78% (95%CI: 0.33%, 1.24%) and 1.10% (95%CI: 0.50%, 1.71%), respectively. The strongest impact on RSD mortality occurred on the second day (lag2), with an effect size of 1.61% (95%CI: 0.61%, 2.62%). The subgroup analyses showed that for every 10 μg·m−3 increase in O3-8 h concentration, the risk of non-accidental mortality in females increased by 0.70% (95%CI: 0.01%, 1.41%); for CSD mortality, the risk in males and individuals aged ≥65 years increased by 0.73% (95%CI: 0.01%, 1.47%) and 0.76% (95%CI: 0.13%, 1.39%), respectively. During the warm season, statistically significant risks were observed for non-accidental, CSD, and RSD mortalities, with increases of 1.07% (95%CI: 0.54%, 1.60%), 1.31% (95%CI: 0.59%, 2.04%), and 2.27% (95%CI: 1.07%, 3.49%), respectively. In the two-pollutant models incorporating sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 micrometers or less (PM10), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), the effect estimates (excess risk) of O3 remained stable and statistically significant (P<0.05), indicating model robustness.
    Conclusion Ground-level O3 exposure in Hohhot increases mortalities due to non-accidental causes, CSD, and RSD, with more pronounced effects during the warm season. Females and individuals aged ≥65 years may be susceptible populations. Therefore, relevant authorities should prioritize the potential health risks of O3 exposure, particularly to vulnerable groups, and promote targeted prevention and control strategies.

     

/

返回文章
返回