1990—2021年中国煤工尘肺疾病负担分析及未来趋势预测：基于2021年全球疾病负担研究

董国强; 张莹; 乔利春; 李淼芊; 雷荣辉; 范翔宇; 刘莹; 卫欣欣; 韩晶

doi:10.11836/JEOM25111

1990—2021年中国煤工尘肺疾病负担分析及未来趋势预测：基于2021年全球疾病负担研究

Disease burden of coal workers' pneumoconiosis in China from 1990 to 2021 and projection of future trends: Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study of 2021

摘要

摘要:
背景中国是世界上主要的煤炭生产、消费大国，煤工尘肺是危害煤矿工人职业健康的首要因素，研究煤工尘肺疾病负担及其变化趋势对疾病防治、职业保护政策完善有重要意义。
目的分析1990—2021年中国煤工尘肺的疾病负担及变化趋势，并预测2022—2035年疾病负担。
方法利用2021年全球疾病负担研究（GBD）数据库，选取中国煤工尘肺的发病数、患病数、死亡数和伤残调整寿命年（DALYs）及其粗率和年龄标化率等疾病负担相关指标。运用线性回归模型计算年龄标化率的估计年变化百分比（EAPC），采用Joinpoint回归模型分析疾病负担的时间趋势以及不同性别及年龄段的疾病负担情况，并采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型（BAPC）预测未来煤工尘肺疾病负担变化趋势。
结果 1990年中国煤工尘肺的年度新发病数为3266例，年度患病数为18872例，年度死亡数为1561例，年度DALYs为44614.718人年。2021年中国煤工尘肺的年度新发病数为3446例，年度患病数为23975例，年度死亡数为1229例，年度DALYs数为29610.754人年。1990—2021年，中国煤工尘肺年龄标化发病率、患病率、死亡率和DALYs率均呈现下降趋势，EAPC分别为−3.121%、−2.532%、−4.018%和−4.268%。中国煤工尘肺的疾病负担主要集中在男性群体。平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）分析显示各疾病负担指标的年龄标化率在不同时期中呈现波动下降趋势。BAPC预测显示：2022—2035年，中国煤工尘肺各年龄标化率指标将持续稳定下降；至2035年，煤工尘肺年龄标化发病率、患病率、死亡率、DALYs率将分别下降至0.10/10万、0.74/10万、0.03/10万、0.74/10万。
结论 1990—2021年中国煤工尘肺引起的疾病负担总体呈现下降趋势，且预计2022—2035年各年龄标化率指标将持续稳定下降。

Abstract:
Background China is a major coal producer and consumer country in the world. Coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP) is a primary factor endangering the occupational health of coal miners. Research on the disease burden of CWP and its changing trend is significant for disease prevention & control and associated policies.
Objective To analyze the disease burden of CWP in China from 1990 to 2021 and its changing trend, and predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2035.
Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database of 2021, numbers ofincident cases, prevalent cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as well as crude and age-standardized rates of CWP in China were retrieved. Linear regression model was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the age-standardized rates. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trend of disease burden and the disease burden of different sexes and age groups, and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to forecast the trend of CWP disease burden.
Results In 1990, the incident, prevalent, and deaths cases of CWP in China were 3266, 18872, and 1561, respectively, and the DALYs of CWP were 44614.718 person-years. In 2021, the incident, prevalent, and deaths cases of CWP were 3446, 23975, and 1229, respectively, and the DALYs of CWP were 29610.754 person-years. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates of CWP in China all showed a downward trend, with the EAPCs of −3.121%, −2.532%, −4.018%, and −4.268%, respectively. The disease burden of CWP in China was mainly concentrated in the male population. The annual average percent change analysis indicated that each standardized rate showed a fluctuating downward trend in different periods. The BAPC model showed that from 2022 to 2035, the age-standardized rates of CWP in China would continue to decline steadily. In 2035, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates of CWP would be reduced to 0.10 per 100000, 0.74 per 100000, 0.03 per 100000, and 0.74 per 100000, respectively.
Conclusion The disease burden contributed by CWP in China generally show a downward trend from 1990 to 2021, and it is expected that the age-standardized rates will continue to decline steadily from 2022 to 2035.

HTML全文

参考文献(30)

施引文献

补充资料

审稿意见

勘误/撤稿