Objective To examine the relationship between hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and meteorological factors by distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), and to provide evidence for the prevention and control of HFMD.
Methods The general daily information of HFMD cases and meteorological variables in Nanjing from 2010 to 2013 were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and local meteorological department. The relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD were analyzed using the DLNM package within R2.12.0 software.
Results A total of 62 266 HFMD cases were reported. Summer and autumn were the peak seasons for incidence. With the assumption of lag 0 d, the estimated risk reached its maximum at an average temperature of 31℃ (RR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14) and minimum at an average temperature of 18℃ (RR=0.96; 95% CI: 0.93-0.99). Smaller air pressure was associated with greater risk of HFMD. At air pressure of 991 hpa and with lag 5 d the maximum effect was reported (RR=1.14; 95% CI: 1.05-1.25); at air pressure of 1 037 hpa and with lag 12 d the minimum effect was reported (RR=0.66; 95% CI: 0.52-0.85).
Conclusion Higher temperature may have acute effects on HFMD incidence, while lower temperature may have lag effects. Air pressure is negatively correlated with the incidence of HFMD and may have lag effects.
DownLoad: