Objective To establish a meteorological forecast model of infectious diarrhea by analyzing the association of infectious diarrhea incidence with meteorological factors.
Methods Based on the daily incidents of infectious diarrhea and weather conditions of Shanghai in 2002-2008, a forecast model was established using a generalized additive model for time series data. Corresponding daily incidents of 2009-2010 were used for verification. Forecast service for infectious diseases were then proposed.
Results The agreement of the forecast model fitted to the selected actual incident data was 66.43%. The agreement of the forecast model in epidemic season (from May to October) was 77.23%. Diarrhea index system was recommended for public health service.
Conclusion The meteorological forecast model of infectious diarrhea can provide diarrhea prevention service to residents of Shanghai and scientific basis for prevention and control of infectious diseases in related governmental agency.
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