Application of Grey Model(1,1) and Exponential Smoothing Method in Forecasting Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Shanghai

ZHU Yi-yi; LI Yan-ting; WANG Ye; FENG Wei; GU Bao-ke; YUAN Zheng-an

ZHU Yi-yi , LI Yan-ting , WANG Ye , FENG Wei , GU Bao-ke , YUAN Zheng-an . Application of Grey Model(1,1) and Exponential Smoothing Method in Forecasting Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Shanghai[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2010, 27(9): 528-531.

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Application of Grey Model(1,1) and Exponential Smoothing Method in Forecasting Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Shanghai

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Objective To forecast the trend of incident rate of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome(HFRS)in Shanghai.

Methods Grey model (1, 1)and Exponential Smoothing model were applied to forecast incident rate of HFRS in Shanghai.

Results Grey model(1, 1)forecast equation was& #374;=(1.49-2.3669/0.5823)e^-0.5823t+2.3669/0.5823 and fitness test analysis showed that Grey model was a good model for incident rate forecasting. By comparing sum of squared residuals and root mean squared error, Holter-Winters Exponential Smoothing forecasting was a best Exponential Smoothing method for HFRS, and D-W test also certificated to it.

Conclusion Both Grey model (1, 1)and Holter-Winters Exponential Smoothing method are both suitable for forecasting HFRS incident rate.

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